Silent Evidence

That year, I turned 30. There’s an old Chinese saying: ‘At 30, one stands firm.’ Yet, I couldn’t even support myself. What could I do? Keep waiting, or give up my movie-making dream? My wife gave me invaluable support. via Ang Lee: A Never-Ending Dream | What Shih Said

I find myself in this quote. When I was 30, I still have not achieve a successful career. I was worry if doing a startup was a right thing.

Today, I’m 35. Still no big achievement yet. I have learn a lot from past failures. Will I still be caking my dream. I too have a Super supportive wife but is it fair to her?

You see, in a typical success story. There is always a period of suffering before the sweetness comes. Ang Lee lives to tell that tale, because he came out of it. There many many thousands of film makes going through when he did but did not write down their failures.

I think this is what they called: surviour bias. Or it can also be the “The Fallacy of Silent Evidence”

Here an example:

NNT talks about our tendency to view famous authors as uniquely talented, and to attribute their success to their talent. However, we have no access to the works of the hundreds of thousands or millions of authors who never have had their books published. So evidence of their talent, or lack of talent is silent, and we cannot evaluate whether talent explains authorial success or not, and should not therefore infer that “talent” is the explanation for success based only on our observation that successful authors are talented. Via Link

Are you caught in such situations? Are you reading stuff that hyper motivates you yet deep inside you know thousands and thousands have failed, just that you did not get to read about it.

I love to here your thoughts.